AI Summary
✦ ClarthaNational Aluminium Company is an integrated aluminium producer, selling alumina, aluminium metal, and rolled products. Chemical operations supply calcined alumina, hydrate, zeolite-A, and specialty products, while Aluminum sells ingots, billets, wire rods, and sheets. Recent aluminium-price gains and record production lifted quarterly profit 91%, supporting revenue growth and improving margins. Profit growth of 164.9% exceeds 27.5% revenue growth, indicating substantial operating leverage from higher aluminium realisations. ROE is unavailable, while debt-to-equity of 0.28 indicates limited leverage and less earnings distortion from financing. At 11.4 times earnings, NALCO appears undervalued versus its earnings growth, but returns remain exposed to aluminium-price cycles. The key question is whether elevated prices and production gains persist.
Price Forecast
Probabilistic Range
Probabilistic lognormal cone using 1Y realized volatility and analyst-target drift when available.
Revenue Forecast
₹ CrEPS Forecast
₹ / shareMulti-factor synthesis of 5 key dimensions
From 13 analysts
Fundamentals
Fundamentals institutional score is 100 using growth durability 100.0.
Valuation
Valuation institutional score is 4 using relative multiple z-scores where peer dispersion is available.
Analyst Consensus
Analyst View institutional score is 51 using mean target upside 5.5%; dispersion penalty 13.7; recommendation breadth from available consensus.
Technical Structure
Technicals institutional score is 42 using EMA-20 continuation within 5% tolerance; VCP range/volume contraction proxy.
Market Sentiment
Recent news flow is balanced or not decisive enough to tilt the tape. Based on 5 recent ticker-linked news items.
Signal Summary
Market intelligence remains Mixed. fundamentals provide support, while valuation and analyst consensus remain considerations.
Composite weights: Fundamentals 25%, Valuation 20%, Analyst Consensus 20%, Technical Structure 20%, Market Sentiment 15%.
Key Data Points
Important Note: This is market intelligence, not investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Valuation Metrics
Trading 114.9% above historical median. Valuation is rising — currently in the strongly overvalued zone (z-score: +1.86). Confidence: 55%.
Live forward EPS implies next-12-month EPS of ₹38.81. Applying the stock's normalized valuation corridor produces a fair range of ₹159.51 to ₹257.31, with base value near ₹190.56 (-50.9% vs current price).
Live forward estimate anchored to the company's historical valuation corridor.
Forward EPS
₹38.81
Forward P/E
10.0x
Base Fair Value
₹190.56
Fair Range
₹159.51 - ₹257.31
Upside To Base
-50.9%
Estimate Source
Live forward EPS
Growth Estimate
+91.1%
5Y Average
4.38
Current
10.55
Overvalued
6.63
Undervalued
4.11
5Y Average
2.79
Current
6.72
Overvalued
3.38
Undervalued
1.32
5Y Average
2.64
Current
3.30
Overvalued
3.03
Undervalued
2.24
Peers & Comparison
Sector: Materials · Theme: Metals - Aluminium
| Company | Rev. Growth | Margin | P/E | vs Avg | 52W Perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD HINDALCOMetals - Aluminium | +32.1% | 5.5% | 14.4x Undervalued | -33% vs avg | +58.0% |
VEDANTA LIMITED VEDLMetals - Diversified | -37.3% | 23.2% | 12.1x Undervalued | -44% vs avg | -34.5% |
SHREE CEMENT LIMITED SHREECEMCement | +5.2% | 14.5% | 56.3x Premium | +161% vs avg | -15.1% |
HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED HINDZINCMining - Diversified | +71.7% | 38.1% | 14.5x Undervalued | -33% vs avg | +40.5% |
NMDC LTD. NMDCMining - Iron Ore | +61.9% | 23.2% | 10.1x Undervalued | -53% vs avg | +20.5% |
NLC INDIA LIMITED NLCINDIAMetals - Diversified | -0.3% | 17.6% | 12.0x Undervalued | -44% vs avg | +22.6% |
COAL INDIA LTD COALINDIAMining - Coal | +45.1% | 18.1% | 8.2x Undervalued | -62% vs avg | +6.7% |
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD HINDCOPPERMining - Copper | +84.7% | 32.4% | 45.4x Premium | +110% vs avg | +119.9% |
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD trades at a discount (11.5x vs peer avg 21.6x), suggesting potential undervaluation relative to the Metals - Aluminium cohort. Peers include HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD, VEDANTA LIMITED, SHREE CEMENT LIMITED — selected based on business model, industry classification, market cap similarity, and business theme alignment.
Financials
Real statement data for revenue, earnings quality, conversion, and balance-sheet coverage. Monetary values are shown in Rs crore.
Latest revenue
₹5.30K CrJun 2026Latest net profit
₹2.00K CrJun 2026Latest EPS
₹10.90Jun 2026Net margin
51.0%Jun 2026Performance
Bars show revenue and net profit. The line shows net margin.
- Revenue
- Net income
- Net margin %
Earnings
Revenue is shown in crores. EPS is rupees per share.
- Revenue
- EPS
Revenue to profit conversion
Bridge from operating numbers to profit for the latest reported period.
Latest reported period: Jun 2026
Debt level and coverage
Debt, cash and free cash flow compared on the same crore scale.
- Debt
- Free cash flow
- Cash & equivalents
Results
| Metric | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales + | 3,179 | 3,043 | 3,348 | 3,579 | 2,856 | 4,001 | 4,662 | 5,268 | 3,807 | 4,292 | 4,731 | 5,013 | 5,302 |
| Expenses + | 2,584 | 2,647 | 2,574 | 2,472 | 1,922 | 2,452 | 2,335 | 2,514 | 2,315 | 2,366 | 2,552 | 2,663 | 2,595 |
| Operating Profit | 595 | 397 | 774 | 1,108 | 934 | 1,549 | 2,328 | 2,754 | 1,492 | 1,926 | 2,179 | 2,349 | 2,708 |
| OPM % | 19% | 13% | 23% | 31% | 33% | 39% | 50% | 52% | 39% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 51% |
| Other Income + | 48 | 69 | 50 | 511 | 61 | 72 | 99 | 126 | 124 | 151 | 194 | 197 | 173 |
| Interest | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 32 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 24 | 10 |
| Depreciation | 170 | 186 | 154 | 240 | 174 | 180 | 286 | 88 | 178 | 174 | 182 | 211 | 182 |
| Profit before tax | 471 | 275 | 668 | 1,369 | 817 | 1,437 | 2,122 | 2,760 | 1,429 | 1,895 | 2,132 | 2,311 | 2,689 |
| Tax % | 26% | 25% | 27% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 26% |
| Net Profit + | 349 | 206 | 488 | 1,016 | 601 | 1,062 | 1,583 | 2,078 | 1,064 | 1,433 | 1,601 | 1,718 | 2,002 |
| EPS in Rs | 1.90 | 1.12 | 2.66 | 5.53 | 3.27 | 5.78 | 8.62 | 11.32 | 5.79 | 7.80 | 8.72 | 9.35 | 10.90 |
| Raw PDF |
All values in ₹ Crores unless otherwise stated. Source: Screener Master (Standalone).
Events Timeline
Newspaper Publication For Dispatach Of Notice For 45Th Annual General Meeting