AI Summary
✦ ClarthaTata Motors is an automotive manufacturer selling pick-ups, trucks, buses, small commercial vehicles, and electric vehicles. Commercial vehicles drive core revenue, while electric vehicles, spare parts, accessories, and distribution services add supporting streams. Q1 revenue increased 19–20%, while net profit rose 83% to ₹2,560 crore, indicating improved operating leverage despite a broader reported profit decline. ROE is high at 26.1%, but 44.09x debt-to-equity materially magnifies financial risk and the effect of leverage on returns. Stable margins provide limited evidence of operating expansion, while the sharp earnings rebound requires confirmation across future quarters. At 55.5x earnings, Tata Motors appears rich relative to its recent profit growth and carries an overvalued profile. The key open question is whether commercial-vehicle demand and electric-vehicle penetration can sustain earnings momentum against elevated leverage.
Price Forecast
Probabilistic Range
Probabilistic lognormal cone using 1Y realized volatility and analyst-target drift when available.
Revenue Forecast
₹ CrEPS Forecast
₹ / shareMulti-factor synthesis of 5 key dimensions
From 20 analysts
Fundamentals
Fundamentals institutional score is 90 using EVA spread proxy 14.1%; growth durability 75.9.
Valuation
Valuation institutional score is 50 using relative multiple z-scores where peer dispersion is available.
Analyst Consensus
Analyst View institutional score is 51 using mean target upside 7.5%; dispersion penalty 24.3; recommendation breadth from available consensus.
Technical Structure
Technicals institutional score is 40 using EMA-20 continuation within 5% tolerance; VCP range/volume contraction proxy.
Market Sentiment
Recent news flow is balanced or not decisive enough to tilt the tape. Based on 8 recent ticker-linked news items.
Signal Summary
Market intelligence remains Neutral. fundamentals provide support, while valuation and analyst consensus remain considerations.
Composite weights: Fundamentals 25%, Valuation 20%, Analyst Consensus 20%, Technical Structure 20%, Market Sentiment 15%.
Key Data Points
Important Note: This is market intelligence, not investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Valuation Metrics
Trading 8.4% above historical median. Valuation is rising — currently in the strongly overvalued zone (z-score: +1.07). Confidence: 90%.
Live forward EPS implies next-12-month EPS of ₹21.95. Applying the stock's normalized valuation corridor produces a fair range of ₹1,034.50 to ₹1,163.79, with base value near ₹1,123.18 (+145.7% vs current price).
Live forward estimate anchored to the company's historical valuation corridor.
Forward EPS
₹21.95
Forward P/E
20.8x
Base Fair Value
₹1,123.18
Fair Range
₹1,034.50 - ₹1,163.79
Upside To Base
+145.7%
Estimate Source
Live forward EPS
Growth Estimate
-25.3%
5Y Average
51.94
Current
55.47
Overvalued
53.02
Undervalued
47.13
5Y Average
17.47
Current
18.66
Overvalued
18.51
Undervalued
16.55
5Y Average
1.88
Current
2.01
Overvalued
2.16
Undervalued
1.60
Peers & Comparison
Sector: Industrials · Theme: Trucks & Buses
| Company | Rev. Growth | Margin | P/E | vs Avg | 52W Perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD ASHOKLEYTrucks & Buses | +17.4% | 6.2% | 29.9x Fair | -4% vs avg | +46.0% |
EICHER MOTORS LTD EICHERMOTTrucks & Buses | +31.5% | 23.2% | 38.3x Premium | +24% vs avg | +40.0% |
ESCORTS KUBOTA LIMITED ESCORTSTractors | +28.3% | 11.3% | 24.9x Undervalued | -20% vs avg | -7.9% |
TATA MOTORS LIMITED trades at a premium (55.5x vs peer avg 31.0x), implying higher growth or quality expectations from the Trucks & Buses cohort. Peers include ASHOK LEYLAND LTD, EICHER MOTORS LTD, ESCORTS KUBOTA LIMITED — selected based on business model, industry classification, market cap similarity, and business theme alignment.
Financials
Real statement data for revenue, earnings quality, conversion, and balance-sheet coverage. Monetary values are shown in Rs crore.
Latest revenue
₹20.40K CrDec 2025Latest net profit
₹2.11K CrDec 2025Latest EPS
₹1.52Dec 2025Net margin
10.7%Dec 2025Performance
Bars show revenue and net profit. The line shows net margin.
- Revenue
- Net income
- Net margin %
Earnings
Revenue is shown in crores. EPS is rupees per share.
- Revenue
- EPS
Revenue to profit conversion
Bridge from operating numbers to profit for the latest reported period.
Latest reported period: Dec 2025
Debt level and coverage
Debt, cash and free cash flow compared on the same crore scale.
- Free cash flow
- Cash & equivalents
Results
| Metric | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 15,518 | 17,040 | 15,682 | 16,861 | 20,404 |
| Expenses | 13,865 | 15,025 | 13,792 | 14,778 | 17,798 |
| Operating Profit | 1,169 | 1,527 | 1,467 | 1,671 | 2,189 |
| OPM % | 7.53% | 8.96% | 9.35% | 9.91% | 10.73% |
| Other Income | 176 | 306 | 342 | 278 | 272 |
| Interest | 223 | 230 | 174 | 192 | 143 |
| Depreciation | 484 | 488 | 423 | 412 | 417 |
| Profit before tax | 1,122 | 1,603 | 1,635 | 1,757 | 2,318 |
| Tax % | 39.75% | 10.11% | 13.09% | 23.45% | 9.15% |
| Net Profit | 676 | 1,441 | 1,421 | 1,345 | 2,106 |
| EPS in Rs | 1.75 | 3.85 | 3.83 | -2.77 | 1.52 |
All values in Rs. Crore unless otherwise stated. Source: CMIE Prowess, Quarterly Interim Standalone.