B

Bharat Forge Limited

BHARATFORGNSE
Market snapshot · 2026-08-11 05:45 UTC

2,073.30

₹-19.80 (-0.95%)

MARKET CAP

₹99.12K Cr

STOCK P/E

99.1x

52W HIGH

₹2,295.00

52W LOW

₹1,100.50

BOOK VALUE

₹200.38

EPS

₹20.93

ROE

11.60%

SECTOR

Materials

DEBT/EQUITY

76.48

VOLUME

21.04L

P/B RATIO

10.35x

PEG RATIO

-5.50

Sector

Materials

Themes

Iron & SteelEvAuto AncillaryLife Insurance Corporation of India Portfolio
D
Dividend
E
Earnings
₹2,265.20₹1,974.42₹1,683.65₹1,392.87₹1,102.09VolumeEEDEDEAug '25Sep '25Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Apr '26Jun '26Aug '26

AI Summary

✦ Clartha

Bharat Forge is a manufacturer and seller of forged and machined components in India and international markets. Forgings supplies automotive, energy, oil and gas, rail, and marine components, while Defence and Others broaden revenue sources. Automotive products include crankshafts, chassis parts, transmission components, and driveline systems. A scheduled August 10 board meeting could influence Q1 disclosure and funding plans, with potential implications for growth investment and financing costs. Revenue grew 11.7%, while profit increased 14.7%; stable margins indicate limited operating leverage despite faster earnings growth. ROE is 11.6%, while debt-to-equity of 76.47 indicates substantial leverage amplifying shareholder returns and financial risk. At 100 times earnings, the stock trades at a steep premium to its growth rate and sector valuation. The valuation appears rich, leaving funding decisions, defence execution, and overseas demand as key open questions.

Forecast

Analyst targets, estimate history, and probabilistic forward ranges for BHARATFORG.

23.00 analysts

Price Forecast

Current
₹2,073
High Target
₹2,500
▲ +20.6%
Median Target
₹1,931
▼ -6.9%
Low Target
₹1,060
▼ -48.9%
Now₹2,073High ₹2,500Median ₹1,931Low ₹1,060Aug '25Now12M Target
Price history (1Y)
Analyst target range
23 analysts

Probabilistic Range

Probabilistic lognormal cone using 1Y realized volatility and analyst-target drift when available.

Time horizonRange ()Probability
3M₹1,759 - ₹2,56580%
6M₹1,667 - ₹2,84180%
12M₹1,566 - ₹3,33080%
Realized vol: +29.4% · Drift: +14.0%

Revenue Forecast

₹ Cr
Mar '26Current₹2,260.0
Sep 2026 ETrend estimate range
High₹2,036.6Base₹1,885.7Low₹1,734.9
Jun '25: ₹2,105.0 · Sep '25: ₹1,947.0 · Dec '25: ₹2,084.0 · Mar '26: ₹2,260.0 · Sep '26: ₹1,885.7 · Dec '26: ₹2,018.4
Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Mar '26Sep '26 EDec '26 E2,105.01,947.02,084.02,260.01,885.72,018.4
PastCurrentTrend estimate: Low / Base / High

EPS Forecast

₹ / share
Mar '26Current₹-2.46
Sep 2026 ETrend estimate range
High₹5.08Base₹4.54Low₹3.99
Jun '25: ₹7.08 · Sep '25: ₹6.48 · Dec '25: ₹6.02 · Mar '26: ₹-2.46 · Sep '26: ₹4.54 · Dec '26: ₹4.21
Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Mar '26Sep '26 EDec '26 E7.086.486.02-2.464.544.21
PastCurrentTrend estimate: Low / Base / High
Market Intelligence

Multi-factor synthesis of 5 key dimensions

Overall Outlook
Cautious
33%
Analyst Consensus
Weakening

From 23 analysts

Mean upside-9.5%

Fundamentals

Weakening

Fundamentals institutional score is 36 using EVA spread proxy -0.4%; growth durability 18.9.

Valuation

Premium valuation

Valuation institutional score is 33 using relative multiple z-scores where peer dispersion is available.

Analyst Consensus

Weakening

Analyst View institutional score is 10 using mean target upside -9.5%; dispersion penalty 30; recommendation breadth from available consensus.

Technical Structure

Weak Structure

Technicals institutional score is 37 using EMA-20 continuation within 5% tolerance; VCP range/volume contraction proxy.

Market Sentiment

Neutral backdrop

Recent news flow is balanced or not decisive enough to tilt the tape. Based on 9 recent ticker-linked news items.

Signal Summary

Market intelligence remains Cautious. Available evidence provides partial support, while fundamentals and valuation remain considerations.

Composite weights: Fundamentals 25%, Valuation 20%, Analyst Consensus 20%, Technical Structure 20%, Market Sentiment 15%.

Fundamentals WeakeningValuation Premium valuationAnalyst Consensus WeakeningTechnical Structure Weak StructureMarket Sentiment Neutral backdrop

Key Data Points

Mean Target Price1,876.9 target
Mean Upside-9.5%
Technical Score37%
Fundamental Score36%
Data CoverageHigh

Important Note: This is market intelligence, not investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial goals and risk tolerance.

Valuation Metrics

Trading 60.6% above historical median. Valuation is rising — currently in the strongly overvalued zone (z-score: +2.21). Confidence: 77%.

Live forward EPS implies next-12-month EPS of ₹48.65. Applying the stock's normalized valuation corridor produces a fair range of ₹2,679.16 to ₹3,639.51, with base value near ₹3,000.73 (+44.7% vs current price).

Forward Valuation Outlook

Live forward estimate anchored to the company's historical valuation corridor.

Below normalized range

Forward EPS

₹48.65

Forward P/E

42.6x

Base Fair Value

₹3,000.73

Fair Range

₹2,679.16 - ₹3,639.51

Upside To Base

+44.7%

Estimate Source

Live forward EPS

Growth Estimate

-18.0%

P/E
Strongly Overvalued

5Y Average

55.10

Current

99.06

Overvalued

74.81

Undervalued

55.07

EV/EBITDA
Strongly Overvalued

5Y Average

20.65

Current

37.13

Overvalued

25.12

Undervalued

13.97

P/S
Strongly Overvalued

5Y Average

3.28

Current

5.90

Overvalued

3.99

Undervalued

2.22

Peers & Comparison

Sector: Materials · Theme: Iron & Steel

Iron & Steel Peers8 peers
Avg P/E: 27.7x
CompanyRev. GrowthMarginP/Evs Avg52W Perf.
DR. REDDY S LABORATORIES
DRREDDYPharmaceuticals
-5.6%10.0%
29.5x
Fair
+6% vs avg
-5.0%
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD
HINDALCOMetals - Aluminium
+32.1%5.5%
14.4x
Undervalued
-48% vs avg
+58.0%
HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED
HEROMOTOCOTwo Wheelers
+34.9%10.7%
21.0x
Undervalued
-24% vs avg
+26.2%
+10.5%2.8%
45.1x
Premium
+63% vs avg
+23.4%
BSE LIMITED
BSEStock Exchanges & Ratings
+64.0%48.9%
49.6x
Premium
+79% vs avg
+50.1%
JSW STEEL LIMITED
JSWSTEELIron & Steel
+9.8%13.1%
12.8x
Undervalued
-54% vs avg
+23.4%
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD
HCLTECHIT Services & Consulting
+3.0%13.0%
21.1x
Undervalued
-24% vs avg
-8.8%
BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED
BAJAJ-AUTOTwo Wheelers
+64.0%16.3%
28.0x
Fair
+1% vs avg
+42.5%
WHY THESE PEERS

BHARAT FORGE LTD trades at a premium (100.0x vs peer avg 27.7x), implying higher growth or quality expectations from the Iron & Steel cohort. Peers include DR. REDDY S LABORATORIES, HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD, HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED — selected based on business model, industry classification, market cap similarity, and business theme alignment.

Financials

Real statement data for revenue, earnings quality, conversion, and balance-sheet coverage. Monetary values are shown in Rs crore.

Latest revenue

₹2.26K CrMar 2026

Latest net profit

₹-118 CrMar 2026

Latest EPS

₹-2.46Mar 2026

Net margin

27.0%Mar 2026

Performance

Bars show revenue and net profit. The line shows net margin.

Rs crore + margin %
Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '260.0%8.0%16.0%24.0%32.0%-800 Cr0.00 Cr800 Cr1.60K Cr2.40K Cr
  • Revenue
  • Net income
  • Net margin %

Earnings

Revenue is shown in crores. EPS is rupees per share.

Rs crore + Rs/share
Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '260.00 Cr600 Cr1.20K Cr1.80K Cr2.40K Cr₹-3₹0₹3₹6₹9
  • Revenue
  • EPS

Revenue to profit conversion

Bridge from operating numbers to profit for the latest reported period.

Rs crore
RevenueExpensesDepreciationOtheradjustmentsOperatingprofitOther incomeInterestOtheradjustmentsProfitbefore taxTax & otherNet Profit-800 Cr0.00 Cr800 Cr1.60K Cr2.40K Cr

Latest reported period: Mar 2026

Debt level and coverage

Debt, cash and free cash flow compared on the same crore scale.

Rs crore
Annual view
Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026-6.00K Cr0.00 Cr6.00K Cr12.00K Cr18.00K Cr
  • Debt
  • Free cash flow
  • Cash & equivalents

Results

MetricMar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026
Sales +1,9972,1272,2492,2632,3292,3382,2472,0962,1632,1051,9472,0842,260
Expenses +1,5091,5791,6431,6001,6691,6871,6211,4861,5461,5331,3961,5171,643
Operating Profit488549607663659651625610617572551566617
OPM %24%26%27%29%28%28%28%29%29%27%28%27%27%
Other Income +-247403525-1014830284239-21-464
Interest66717381637064575952484140
Depreciation105109113112108109108110112112111112112
Profit before tax3154174625045133715024734734494303920
Tax %22%25%25%25%24%27%28%27%27%25%28%26%51,300%
Net Profit +245312346378390269361346346339310288-118
EPS in Rs5.256.697.438.118.375.797.767.247.237.086.486.02-2.46
Raw PDF

All values in ₹ Crores unless otherwise stated. Source: Screener Master (Standalone).

Shareholding Pattern

HolderJun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026
Promoters +44.07%44.07%44.07%44.07%44.07%
FIIs +14.37%13.62%12.40%14.15%15.04%
DIIs +31.26%32.11%34.08%32.62%32.18%
Government +0.15%0.15%0.15%0.15%0.15%
Public +10.15%10.05%9.29%9.00%8.54%
Others0.01%0.01%0.02%
Jun 2026
Promoters +
FIIs +
DIIs +
Government +
Public +
Others

Events Timeline

Annual Report FY26

FY2026PDFCompany Reports Open

Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation

Aug 05, 2026PDFCompany Reports Open

Board Meeting Intimation for Board Meeting Intimation For Quarterly Results And Fund Raising

Aug 05, 2026PDFCompany Reports Open

Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Restructuring

Jul 23, 2026PDFCompany Reports Open

Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Press Release / Media Release

Jul 22, 2026PDFCompany Reports Open