AI Summary
✦ ClarthaBharat Forge is a manufacturer and seller of forged and machined components in India and international markets. Forgings supplies automotive, energy, oil and gas, rail, and marine components, while Defence and Others broaden revenue sources. Automotive products include crankshafts, chassis parts, transmission components, and driveline systems. A scheduled August 10 board meeting could influence Q1 disclosure and funding plans, with potential implications for growth investment and financing costs. Revenue grew 11.7%, while profit increased 14.7%; stable margins indicate limited operating leverage despite faster earnings growth. ROE is 11.6%, while debt-to-equity of 76.47 indicates substantial leverage amplifying shareholder returns and financial risk. At 100 times earnings, the stock trades at a steep premium to its growth rate and sector valuation. The valuation appears rich, leaving funding decisions, defence execution, and overseas demand as key open questions.
Price Forecast
Probabilistic Range
Probabilistic lognormal cone using 1Y realized volatility and analyst-target drift when available.
Revenue Forecast
₹ CrEPS Forecast
₹ / shareMulti-factor synthesis of 5 key dimensions
From 23 analysts
Fundamentals
Fundamentals institutional score is 36 using EVA spread proxy -0.4%; growth durability 18.9.
Valuation
Valuation institutional score is 33 using relative multiple z-scores where peer dispersion is available.
Analyst Consensus
Analyst View institutional score is 10 using mean target upside -9.5%; dispersion penalty 30; recommendation breadth from available consensus.
Technical Structure
Technicals institutional score is 37 using EMA-20 continuation within 5% tolerance; VCP range/volume contraction proxy.
Market Sentiment
Recent news flow is balanced or not decisive enough to tilt the tape. Based on 9 recent ticker-linked news items.
Signal Summary
Market intelligence remains Cautious. Available evidence provides partial support, while fundamentals and valuation remain considerations.
Composite weights: Fundamentals 25%, Valuation 20%, Analyst Consensus 20%, Technical Structure 20%, Market Sentiment 15%.
Key Data Points
Important Note: This is market intelligence, not investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Valuation Metrics
Trading 60.6% above historical median. Valuation is rising — currently in the strongly overvalued zone (z-score: +2.21). Confidence: 77%.
Live forward EPS implies next-12-month EPS of ₹48.65. Applying the stock's normalized valuation corridor produces a fair range of ₹2,679.16 to ₹3,639.51, with base value near ₹3,000.73 (+44.7% vs current price).
Live forward estimate anchored to the company's historical valuation corridor.
Forward EPS
₹48.65
Forward P/E
42.6x
Base Fair Value
₹3,000.73
Fair Range
₹2,679.16 - ₹3,639.51
Upside To Base
+44.7%
Estimate Source
Live forward EPS
Growth Estimate
-18.0%
5Y Average
55.10
Current
99.06
Overvalued
74.81
Undervalued
55.07
5Y Average
20.65
Current
37.13
Overvalued
25.12
Undervalued
13.97
5Y Average
3.28
Current
5.90
Overvalued
3.99
Undervalued
2.22
Peers & Comparison
Sector: Materials · Theme: Iron & Steel
| Company | Rev. Growth | Margin | P/E | vs Avg | 52W Perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR. REDDY S LABORATORIES DRREDDYPharmaceuticals | -5.6% | 10.0% | 29.5x Fair | +6% vs avg | -5.0% |
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD HINDALCOMetals - Aluminium | +32.1% | 5.5% | 14.4x Undervalued | -48% vs avg | +58.0% |
HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED HEROMOTOCOTwo Wheelers | +34.9% | 10.7% | 21.0x Undervalued | -24% vs avg | +26.2% |
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD GRASIMCement | +10.5% | 2.8% | 45.1x Premium | +63% vs avg | +23.4% |
BSE LIMITED BSEStock Exchanges & Ratings | +64.0% | 48.9% | 49.6x Premium | +79% vs avg | +50.1% |
JSW STEEL LIMITED JSWSTEELIron & Steel | +9.8% | 13.1% | 12.8x Undervalued | -54% vs avg | +23.4% |
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD HCLTECHIT Services & Consulting | +3.0% | 13.0% | 21.1x Undervalued | -24% vs avg | -8.8% |
BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED BAJAJ-AUTOTwo Wheelers | +64.0% | 16.3% | 28.0x Fair | +1% vs avg | +42.5% |
BHARAT FORGE LTD trades at a premium (100.0x vs peer avg 27.7x), implying higher growth or quality expectations from the Iron & Steel cohort. Peers include DR. REDDY S LABORATORIES, HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD, HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED — selected based on business model, industry classification, market cap similarity, and business theme alignment.
Financials
Real statement data for revenue, earnings quality, conversion, and balance-sheet coverage. Monetary values are shown in Rs crore.
Latest revenue
₹2.26K CrMar 2026Latest net profit
₹-118 CrMar 2026Latest EPS
₹-2.46Mar 2026Net margin
27.0%Mar 2026Performance
Bars show revenue and net profit. The line shows net margin.
- Revenue
- Net income
- Net margin %
Earnings
Revenue is shown in crores. EPS is rupees per share.
- Revenue
- EPS
Revenue to profit conversion
Bridge from operating numbers to profit for the latest reported period.
Latest reported period: Mar 2026
Debt level and coverage
Debt, cash and free cash flow compared on the same crore scale.
- Debt
- Free cash flow
- Cash & equivalents
Results
| Metric | Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales + | 1,997 | 2,127 | 2,249 | 2,263 | 2,329 | 2,338 | 2,247 | 2,096 | 2,163 | 2,105 | 1,947 | 2,084 | 2,260 |
| Expenses + | 1,509 | 1,579 | 1,643 | 1,600 | 1,669 | 1,687 | 1,621 | 1,486 | 1,546 | 1,533 | 1,396 | 1,517 | 1,643 |
| Operating Profit | 488 | 549 | 607 | 663 | 659 | 651 | 625 | 610 | 617 | 572 | 551 | 566 | 617 |
| OPM % | 24% | 26% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 27% |
| Other Income + | -2 | 47 | 40 | 35 | 25 | -101 | 48 | 30 | 28 | 42 | 39 | -21 | -464 |
| Interest | 66 | 71 | 73 | 81 | 63 | 70 | 64 | 57 | 59 | 52 | 48 | 41 | 40 |
| Depreciation | 105 | 109 | 113 | 112 | 108 | 109 | 108 | 110 | 112 | 112 | 111 | 112 | 112 |
| Profit before tax | 315 | 417 | 462 | 504 | 513 | 371 | 502 | 473 | 473 | 449 | 430 | 392 | 0 |
| Tax % | 22% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 26% | 51,300% |
| Net Profit + | 245 | 312 | 346 | 378 | 390 | 269 | 361 | 346 | 346 | 339 | 310 | 288 | -118 |
| EPS in Rs | 5.25 | 6.69 | 7.43 | 8.11 | 8.37 | 5.79 | 7.76 | 7.24 | 7.23 | 7.08 | 6.48 | 6.02 | -2.46 |
| Raw PDF |
All values in ₹ Crores unless otherwise stated. Source: Screener Master (Standalone).
Events Timeline
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation
Board Meeting Intimation for Board Meeting Intimation For Quarterly Results And Fund Raising